Episode 59: History of quantum - Part 2

Quantum computing often sounds abstract, expensive, and far removed from everyday IT decisions. This conversation moves beyond theory and into the practical realities of how quantum computers work today, where the technology is heading, and why procurement and security teams should already be paying attention.

Why quantum computers run at near absolute zero

Not all quantum computers work the same way. There are different qubit technologies, including photonic qubits that operate at room temperature but require a near-perfect vacuum. Creating that vacuum turns out to be almost as challenging as achieving extreme cold.

IBM has chosen superconducting transmon qubits, which operate at around 15 millikelvin, colder than deep space. Crucially, only a tiny part of the system needs to reach this temperature. The qubits sit inside a small chamber at the bottom of a large refrigeration stack that uses different isotopes of helium to step down the temperature.

Microwave pulses are used to control the qubits, but even these tiny signals generate heat. Managing that balance is one of the key technical challenges and explains why today’s quantum computers are complex and delicate systems.

When quantum computing becomes genuinely useful

The industry uses two important milestones to describe progress. The first is quantum utility, where quantum computers begin to deliver limited but meaningful results. The second is quantum advantage, where they can solve problems better or faster than classical computers.

Quantum advantage has not yet been reached, but it is getting close. Current expectations suggest it could happen around 2026 or 2027. Early breakthroughs are likely to be highly specialised, particularly in areas like computational chemistry, rather than general-purpose computing.

Why quantum will be delivered through the cloud

Quantum computers are unlikely to sit in offices or data centres. They are expensive to run, difficult to maintain, and constantly evolving. Instead, access is already provided through the cloud.

Since 2016, IBM has offered quantum systems via APIs, with free tiers for learning and paid models similar to cloud compute plans. This approach allows organisations to experiment, scale usage, and avoid the complexity of running the hardware themselves.

Y2Q and the rise of quantum-safe security

The most urgent issue raised is security. Shor’s algorithm shows that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break widely used public key encryption, including RSA. This encryption underpins secure internet connections, digital signatures, payments, and document verification.

The moment when a cryptographically relevant quantum computer exists is often referred to as Y2Q. Recent roadmap updates suggest this could happen between 2030 and 2035. That leaves far less preparation time than many organisations expect.

Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography requires changes across infrastructure, software, and processes. For procurement professionals, this means asking the right questions now about quantum-safe security when buying or renewing technology.

For organisations starting to think about quantum risk and future-proof security procurement, get in touch.